POLITICAL consultant Bruce Hawker believes Kevin Rudd won't challenge Prime Minister Julia Gillard despite a slump in Labor's electoral standing.
The latest Nielsen poll released by Fairfax Media on Monday showed Labor dropping four percentage points in the two-party preferred vote to 45 per cent, with the coalition on 55 per cent.
It showed support for Mr Rudd as preferred Labor leader was 61 per cent compared to 35 per cent for Ms Gillard.
Ms Gillard repeatedly declined to comment on the poll.
Mr Hawker, who backed Mr Rudd in the leadership vote won by Ms Gillard 71-31 a year ago, said the polls were "really grim".
He said Mr Rudd had made it pretty clear he would not challenge Ms Gillard.
"I am quite convinced that is going to be the case," Mr Hawker told ABC TV on Monday.
Mr Hawker said it would be tough for the ALP to win the federal election announced by Ms Gillard for September 14.
"It is going to be hard with Julia, or whoever would lead the party, if she somehow fell under a bus or whatever, and wasn't available to lead the party," he said.
Despite Mr Rudd being the most popular figure in the ALP, Labor MPs had to work on the assumption Mr Rudd would not return as leader, Mr Hawker said.
"That ship has sailed," he said.
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